MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2401d880b9418c68b1d517c1ad31c42ece035e740da6cd850e30b00046c306e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 5,256$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 62c | 2,459$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.02 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 32c | 2,061$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.11 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…1997backed Over | 41c | 1,985$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.69 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 60c | 1,031$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.4 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 63c | 986.19$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.89 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 903.79$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.12 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 841.05$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.41 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 699.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.59 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 42c | 636.19$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.19 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 625.17$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.32 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 63c | 555.56$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 43c | 477.54$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 59c | 375.53$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 37c | 225.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 63c | 213$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…d8c4backed Under | 28c | 207.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 188.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 59c | 169.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 42c | 119.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 40c | 111.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 42c | 109.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 41c | 93.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 41c | 93.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 40c | 64.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…53d5backed Under | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 34c | 63.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 51.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 59c | 48.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 41c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 34.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 57c | 33.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 61c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Under | 71c | 29.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…26bcbacked Under | 59c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 43c | 23.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 62c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 66c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Under | 57c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 62c | 16.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.