MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc813a82f22c60e3d6a51eac22b60add09a5477a4e23bdb0688b38617791e2384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 50c | 2,699$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.56 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 2,623$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.42 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 2,469$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.7 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.99 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 850.95$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 806.14$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 52c | 785.7$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.56 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 52c | 560.31$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.36 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 38c | 218.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 191.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 163.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 47c | 121.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 50c | 58.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 50.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 36.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 48c | 33.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 32c | 31.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 56c | 26.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 19.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 1.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.