MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda193e1dab3fa642f2a49e23433f515d22932a67b083af242bd7154faac7f83d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 452.75$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.53 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 25c | 343.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 287.27$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Chicago White Sox | 17c | 271.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 262.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago White Sox | 25c | 175.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 122.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 109.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 56.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 56.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 52.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Chicago White Sox | 26c | 50.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 49.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 39.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Chicago White Sox | 39c | 37.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 37.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…8c35backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 1.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.