MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd87644877e3c90269439f2e5a2b3a69659cf463dbdcd9ef6bd97bd7f2b7efbb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 10,700$6,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,698.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 5,556$3,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.32 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 5,196$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.32 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 46c | 3,190$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.86 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 2,501$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over | 45c | 2,359$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.75 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 44c | 2,165$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.48 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 2,145$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.04 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 42c | 2,132$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.53 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 58c | 1,950$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.83 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 1,624$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.18 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 1,482$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 58c | 1,268$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.5 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d4…a050backed Over | 45c | 1,092$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…36cabacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 14c | 779.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 44c | 658.91$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…bde6backed Over | 47c | 607.2$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 598.64$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.42 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 467.41$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.61 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 42c | 459.34$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.31 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 60c | 406.67$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.67 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 43c | 392.87$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 179.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 47c | 164.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 56c | 159.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 54c | 153.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 52c | 127.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 124.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Over | 46c | 103.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 57c | 82.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 56c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…76ccbacked Under | 57c | 76.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecb…1243backed Under | 57c | 76.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 44c | 56.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 55.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 56c | 51.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Under | 58c | 44.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 63c | 39.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 37.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…3516backed Over | 43c | 32.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +6.6wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 60c | 30.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Over | 41c | 26.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 44c | 25.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Over | 45c | 24.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b57…7264backed Under | 53c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c17…3844backed Under | 57c | 22.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 1.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 3.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.