TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,041
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,322

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,041 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Under56c10,700$6,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,698.564,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under55c5,556$3,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.322,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over42c5,196$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.321,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over46c3,190$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.861,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over44c2,501$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.586,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over45c2,359$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.757550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over44c2,165$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.483852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under53c2,145$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.0492054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Over42c2,132$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.5357744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Under58c1,950$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.8324651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over45c1,624$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.182,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over39c1,482$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5832,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under58c1,268$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.51,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Over43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d4…a050backed Over45c1,092$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x172d…36cabacked Over46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over14c779.64$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.064,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over44c658.91$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.925945.8%27 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38b…bde6backed Over47c607.2$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over43c598.64$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.425,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over47c467.41$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.611,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over42c459.34$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.311,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Under60c406.67$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.671,16849%572 W · 596 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over43c392.87$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8756851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Over39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1179044.4%40 W · 50 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over48c179.54$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4761948.6%301 W · 318 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Over47c164.21$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5249649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Under56c159.24$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0617248.8%84 W · 88 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Under54c153.06$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4122248.6%108 W · 114 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Under52c127.59$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2413452.2%70 W · 64 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c124.38$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Over46c103.16$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.455143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under57c85.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7536157.9%209 W · 152 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked Under57c82.68$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.553246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under56c78$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.321,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1852…76ccbacked Under57c76.44$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5910262.7%64 W · 38 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ecb…1243backed Under57c76.42$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over43c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2523248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over46c66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3672247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over44c56.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.72,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under53c55.4$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.081,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under56c51.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.778146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x239d…daebbacked Under57c48.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9530350.8%154 W · 149 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under53c48.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8486653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Under58c44.84$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.838441.7%35 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under63c39.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4790446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Over47c37.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6610449%51 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088d…3516backed Over43c32.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121984.2%16 W · 3 L+6.6wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+73.8%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7770…f99bbacked Under60c30.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.266446.9%30 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d19…a694backed Over41c26.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810735.5%38 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac24…576ebacked Over44c25.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1122948%110 W · 119 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over46c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e3…ff82backed Over45c24.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.073534.3%12 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b57…7264backed Under53c24.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c17…3844backed Under57c22.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.831050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Under58c19.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1923750.6%120 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.