Tennis · resolved market
WTA Cincinnati - Swiatek vs. Paolini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc84019a0d36dc6c79dea9b56e5cfd47144f6c66caee187abb2cad8cbc529eadf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Swiatek, Paolini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Paolini | 14c | 20,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Paolini | 15c | 10,936$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.4 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Paolini | 15c | 5,102$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.76 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Paolini | 30c | 4,444$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.2 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Paolini | 21c | 3,708$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.02 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Paolini | 17c | 2,050$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Paolini | 13c | 1,976$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.84 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed Paolini | 3c | 1,625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…1208backed Paolini | 18c | 1,504$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.38 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Paolini | 13c | 1,385$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.05 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Paolini | 13c | 1,254$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Paolini | 14c | 1,146$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Paolini | 4c | 970$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Paolini | 22c | 903.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Paolini | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Paolini | 16c | 644.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Paolini | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Paolini | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Paolini | 17c | 590.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6392…6cc3backed Paolini | 14c | 534.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Swiatek | 71c | 483.06$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Paolini | 14c | 479.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2,177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Paolini | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Swiatek | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26d…53ccbacked Paolini | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Paolini | 12c | 347.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Swiatek | 75c | 328.59$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Paolini | 14c | 291$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Swiatek | 80c | 290$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Paolini | 15c | 252.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…3e01backed Paolini | 14c | 240$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Paolini | 8c | 211$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Paolini | 17c | 176.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Paolini | 14c | 132.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Paolini | 15c | 129.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Paolini | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Paolini | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Paolini | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.