Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8563d68029b1158a5916c971911057c3e98796ffad62b441a3d391399fdae3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,644 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 867.37$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 778.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 528.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 500.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.99 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 430.6$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 8c | 415.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 325.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.86 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 22c | 315.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 288.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 27c | 261.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 49c | 247.79$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 212.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 172.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 168$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed No | 34c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 139.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 136.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 74c | 135.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 9c | 132.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…761cbacked Yes | 16c | 122.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 14c | 107.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 14c | 84.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 53c | 82.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 33c | 81.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 19c | 64.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 63.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 56c | 59.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 69c | 58.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 51.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked Yes | 26c | 44.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 43.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 37.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 32.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7d…0434backed Yes | 64c | 31.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 16.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.