MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8704c81ffcf251afe0a23f6c753447e9657693dcea9a7492b27489d3f8ac244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 9,362$4,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,445.67 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 4,765$2,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.97 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 3,229$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.19 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 50c | 3,172$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.95 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 1,251$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.02 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…beeebacked Under | 50c | 1,155$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.51 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 47c | 927.53$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.94 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 906.49$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Over | 48c | 678.16$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 632.7$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.7 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Under | 53c | 583.08$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.05 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 20c | 513.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 52c | 435.62$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 54c | 315.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.93 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 313.7$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 54c | 312.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.31 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 54c | 310.01$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.39 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 54c | 310.01$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.39 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 53c | 305.57$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 53c | 301.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 53c | 301.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 53c | 301.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 54c | 296.51$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.39 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 54c | 296.51$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.39 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…0d11backed Under | 53c | 241.54$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 49c | 224.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.63 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 55c | 195.06$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 175$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 54c | 141.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 49c | 135.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 49c | 122.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 48c | 102.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 56c | 99.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Under | 54c | 99.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 47c | 89.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Under | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 53c | 66.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Over | 47c | 62.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 50c | 62.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 53c | 54.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 49c | 49.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…a913backed Under | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 47c | 38.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 47c | 37.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 50c | 36.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Under | 54c | 35.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 51c | 35.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 49c | 31.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 40c | 29.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 49c | 24.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 50c | 23.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 54c | 18.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas RangersCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.