MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88194e6dd84648e041df813238f8e885a99bb5e2ef817a3f4c9fc549379b554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 3,642$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 2,969$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 1,342$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 1,089$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 420$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 358.41$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.96 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 298.59$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 186.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 121$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 113$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 76.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 74.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 50.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Detroit Tigers | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 43.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Detroit Tigers | 53c | 35.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 32.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 31.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Kansas City Royals | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 16.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.