MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34863f4655977f0d2206f8bdb6257260d4988b7efc93d0c0f2f341d40aae2536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 53c | 11,401$6,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,358.42 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 9,112$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,229.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Under | 54c | 5,100$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,356.99 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 3,340$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.51 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 45c | 3,157$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.73 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Under | 56c | 2,687$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.69 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 2,509$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.13 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 2,204$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.63 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed Over | 47c | 2,100$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 2,032$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.13 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 2,017$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 1,353$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.39 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 47c | 1,244$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.71 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 1,181$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 46c | 881.42$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.45 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 54c | 850.17$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.08 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 800$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 45c | 694.76$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.64 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 615.83$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.35 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 476.56$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 209.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 185$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 29c | 173.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 47c | 168$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 47c | 142.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 55c | 73.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 57c | 70.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…cd8abacked Over | 46c | 67.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 56.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 61c | 51.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 45.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 44c | 43.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed Over | 47c | 38.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 26.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 25.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 43c | 24.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.