TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ursaof ECSTATIC, Ursa
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Ursa52c2,132$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.473,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x668d…e471backed Ursa62c1,400$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.735352.8%28 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed ECSTATIC51c1,297$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.9465546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Ursa70c1,231$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.7349646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Ursa75c916.35$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.472,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked ECSTATIC47c893.81$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.321,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked ECSTATIC38c579.92$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.372,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ECSTATIC27c554.84$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.355,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked ECSTATIC48c526.91$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.822,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Ursa67c410.87$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.3124457%139 W · 105 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ECSTATIC24c370.71$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.392,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed ECSTATIC34c248.77$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.231,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa42c246.61$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.894,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ECSTATIC59c230.72$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.727,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed ECSTATIC61c208.13$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9644244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Ursa48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9598856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Ursa39c201.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9138835.8%139 W · 249 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Ursa54c184.44$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.533,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6510…36d1backed ECSTATIC14c164$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.17321.9%16 W · 57 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3d0…6450backed ECSTATIC25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403450%17 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked ECSTATIC17c154$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.431328.4%89 W · 224 L-21.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed ECSTATIC21c137.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.092,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x53fc…76d7backed ECSTATIC61c135.75$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.816854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked ECSTATIC51c111.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.136151.8%187 W · 174 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7489…7c83backed Ursa46c105$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.72842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9233…b93abacked ECSTATIC27c95.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.823458.8%20 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed ECSTATIC45c85.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.681,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked ECSTATIC57c85.46$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7171951%367 W · 352 L+28.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked Ursa60c81.67$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.461,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Ursa60c77.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.721,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked ECSTATIC20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1436334.2%124 W · 239 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Ursa44c66.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.54546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19be…2e91backed ECSTATIC61c61.04$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.231040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked ECSTATIC31c58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7647260%283 W · 189 L+31.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Ursa66c54.31$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6448948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ECSTATIC37c41.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.15,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked ECSTATIC32c40.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0237441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb3e…9120backed ECSTATIC57c35.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4614641.1%60 W · 86 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4470…c22ebacked ECSTATIC45c32.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.517536%27 W · 48 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Ursa66c32.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7827443.1%118 W · 156 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.62,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3016…f1fcbacked Ursa72c27.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.