CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc885a5bda4abef001ace0d8e2cd50726fdf4402aca9c707fddc15567ba3761b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof ECSTATIC, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ursa | 52c | 2,132$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.47 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Ursa | 62c | 1,400$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.73 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed ECSTATIC | 51c | 1,297$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.94 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Ursa | 70c | 1,231$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.73 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ursa | 75c | 916.35$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.47 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ECSTATIC | 47c | 893.81$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.32 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked ECSTATIC | 38c | 579.92$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.37 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed ECSTATIC | 27c | 554.84$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked ECSTATIC | 48c | 526.91$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.82 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Ursa | 67c | 410.87$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.31 | 244 | 57%139 W · 105 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ECSTATIC | 24c | 370.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed ECSTATIC | 34c | 248.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 42c | 246.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ECSTATIC | 59c | 230.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.72 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed ECSTATIC | 61c | 208.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Ursa | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Ursa | 39c | 201.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ursa | 54c | 184.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed ECSTATIC | 14c | 164$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d0…6450backed ECSTATIC | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked ECSTATIC | 17c | 154$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed ECSTATIC | 21c | 137.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…76d7backed ECSTATIC | 61c | 135.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked ECSTATIC | 51c | 111.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7489…7c83backed Ursa | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9233…b93abacked ECSTATIC | 27c | 95.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed ECSTATIC | 45c | 85.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked ECSTATIC | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Ursa | 60c | 81.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Ursa | 60c | 77.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked ECSTATIC | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Ursa | 44c | 66.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…2e91backed ECSTATIC | 61c | 61.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked ECSTATIC | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Ursa | 66c | 54.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ECSTATIC | 37c | 41.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked ECSTATIC | 32c | 40.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed ECSTATIC | 57c | 35.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked ECSTATIC | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Ursa | 66c | 32.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Ursa | 72c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 PlayoffsECSTATIC won
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerECSTATIC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.