Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc89c9b41f81416d5c3c7777692427510e2874636d34f63e1bc04e9708955cc4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked No | 62c | 1,856$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 40c | 665.83$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.05 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 65c | 657.87$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.29 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 5c | 494.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.87 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 31c | 383.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.89 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 13c | 360$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 331.15$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.47 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 274.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 269.09$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 13c | 252.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 213.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 208.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 177.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 172.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 32c | 168.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.16 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 66c | 151.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 37c | 121$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 43c | 114.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…48bfbacked Yes | 9c | 113.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,004.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 101$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…c5bdbacked Yes | 46c | 96.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…20e0backed Yes | 15c | 85.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 38c | 81.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 15c | 75.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 72.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 66.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 39c | 63.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 62c | 58.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 69c | 50.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 68c | 46.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 54c | 41.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 40.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed Yes | 30c | 36.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 34c | 36.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 32.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 32.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 32.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 32.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 52c | 29.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 23.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 77c | 13.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.