Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4902ae3a77501d97757e7d1c05cdf34aec1aee073ed5554cba8c89ae93c1b2dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6998…3b07backed Yes | 0c | 3,988$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 206.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 7c | 205.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 188.8$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 122.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 15c | 121$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 55c | 113.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 53c | 82.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 16c | 74.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 41c | 72.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 71.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 54c | 71.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 50c | 65.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…2d52backed Yes | 53c | 64.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 80c | 63.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 58.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 45c | 55.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5d…6096backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 40c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 69c | 39.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 38.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 35.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed Yes | 49c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…d33cbacked No | 44c | 29.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 45c | 26.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 46c | 25.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 23.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 79c | 20.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed No | 77c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.