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Europa Conference League · resolved market

PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
MH Hapoel Tel Avivof PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad, MH Hapoel Tel Aviv
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$953

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $888 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6aa…4e0ebacked PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad44c266.24$117 inLost-$116.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed MH Hapoel Tel Aviv77c242.39$186 inWon+$56.7838144.1%168 W · 213 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed MH Hapoel Tel Aviv74c184.71$137 inWon+$48.021,31650.8%668 W · 648 L+33.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe6…4a1bbacked MH Hapoel Tel Aviv54c140$76 inWon+$63.93956.4%22 W · 17 L+10.1wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+330.1%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x503e…999cbacked PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad22c104.55$23 inLost-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad24c104.17$25 inLost-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dea…795cbacked PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad26c75.27$20 inLost-$19.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed MH Hapoel Tel Aviv56c61.42$35 inWon+$26.9279354.2%430 W · 363 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed MH Hapoel Tel Aviv58c41.99$24 inWon+$17.545350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked MH Hapoel Tel Aviv77c25.97$20 inWon+$5.979958.6%58 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed MH Hapoel Tel Aviv58c20.68$12 inWon+$8.696659.1%39 W · 27 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+32.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6535…dd25backed MH Hapoel Tel Aviv58c19.83$11 inWon+$8.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc056…4d5abacked MH Hapoel Tel Aviv77c19.55$15 inWon+$4.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+93.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed MH Hapoel Tel Aviv76c13.78$10 inWon+$3.311,57355.7%876 W · 697 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.