TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. MH Hapoel Tel Aviv: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,835 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over6c886.1$50 inLost-$49.8481440.5%330 W · 484 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over6c432$26 inLost-$25.9212545.6%57 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Over5c406$20 inLost-$20.310939.4%43 W · 66 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Under67c298.51$200 inWon+$98.512065%13 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over33c266.06$89 inLost-$88.652,47833.9%840 W · 1,638 L-95.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked Under43c195.64$83 inWon+$112.2436356.5%205 W · 158 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over65c150$98 inLost-$97.58165.4%53 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Under70c148.36$103 inWon+$45.1427846.4%129 W · 149 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Under57c141.8$81 inWon+$61.223950.2%120 W · 119 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under57c100$57 inWon+$43.4133446.7%156 W · 178 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under72c75.78$55 inWon+$21.223,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e4…3876backed Under49c61.22$30 inWon+$31.223966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under43c40.06$17 inWon+$22.832,17537.6%817 W · 1,358 L+4.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over56c31$17 inLost-$17.2527754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over47c28.26$13 inLost-$13.479732.2%257 W · 540 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under50c25$13 inWon+$12.4719848%95 W · 103 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.