Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8d8b522668354b89146a0fc9a4875ec04afdd4a8564490fc3694fdb015a34a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Virtus.pro, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro | 32c | 3,097$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Yellow Submarine | 69c | 799.3$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.78 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed Yellow Submarine | 67c | 511.2$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.7 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed Yellow Submarine | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Yellow Submarine | 70c | 455.05$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…56d8backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 425.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yellow Submarine | 67c | 371.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yellow Submarine | 66c | 281.95$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…d62cbacked Yellow Submarine | 68c | 281.25$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 280.03$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Yellow Submarine | 67c | 188.1$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 162 | 56.8%92 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 159.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 150.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Virtus.pro | 34c | 147.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 135.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 114.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 111.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414c…80c7backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yellow Submarine | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…1ddbbacked Yellow Submarine | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Yellow Submarine | 69c | 71.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Yellow Submarine | 66c | 55.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 45.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…736bbacked Yellow Submarine | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 148 | 68.9%102 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ec81backed Yellow Submarine | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 29.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Yellow Submarine | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yellow Submarine | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Yellow Submarine | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.