Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc924fbb0243482ea493bdc8b7be82f7f034033c1a3988c22a27e06bce052a120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 33c | 715.98$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.85 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 79c | 666.5$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 37c | 563.89$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.09 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 57c | 445.75$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.7 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 362.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 313.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 41c | 309.43$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.48 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 202.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 18c | 201.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 175.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 106.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…ca06backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…8d7ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 19c | 80.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 66.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 78c | 57.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed Yes | 34c | 40.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…b951backed Yes | 31c | 39.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 38.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 37.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…f395backed Yes | 80c | 36.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…ec87backed Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 70c | 29.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 70c | 23.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 19.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 17.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 75c | 15.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.