Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc930918cdebb8706199c859cc77b0aa7a38ce7ac73ccb9d6c6717234ef93426c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up | 4c | 1,026$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…690dbacked Up | 3c | 1,007$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 2c | 592.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Up | 45c | 339.91$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Up | 31c | 310.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Up | 9c | 206.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Up | 49c | 198.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Down | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 55c | 164.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…be4cbacked Down | 52c | 142.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 44c | 141.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Down | 78c | 126.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 27c | 101.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3207…3f50backed Down | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 58c | 99.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Up | 48c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9e…9500backed Down | 55c | 70.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9223…fb06backed Down | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…8f0cbacked Up | 48c | 54.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Up | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Down | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed Down | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed Down | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc6…36f2backed Down | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89e…cf92backed Down | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…f314backed Up | 51c | 49.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…3d50backed Down | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed Up | 51c | 48.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Up | 48c | 47.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Down | 55c | 43.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c34…aa97backed Up | 38c | 33.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…aa50backed Up | 49c | 28.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…aa46backed Down | 58c | 27.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf723…d868backed Down | 67c | 24.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.