MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9432801ff39139af3bf54553f4f2fb694e0fd013f5e1d1e7b7e13e025a56a9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 22c | 2,554$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 77c | 2,052$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.34 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Over | 54c | 1,900$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.99 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 1,407$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 78c | 789.9$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Under | 78c | 620.06$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 27c | 559.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 74c | 171.51$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 23c | 152.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 23c | 152.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 33c | 126.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 108.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 77c | 96.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…4b9cbacked Under | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Under | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 55c | 35.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 38c | 26.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 57c | 24.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…d0eebacked Under | 77c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.