MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207ddda541b4840fe9a4f571b41a6ade0279ecf6ddfca6f058bbdfaaadf6f202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 7,194$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,404.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 7,160$4,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,790.39 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 6,841$4,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,583.34 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 3,586$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.36 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30b…b9dbbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 1,649$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.65 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 1,473$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 1,375$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.74 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 999.38$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.89 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 614.01$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 606.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.04 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 519$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 475.43$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 291.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.19 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 33c | 260$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.29 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 250.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 248$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Seattle Mariners | 33c | 184.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.04 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 155.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 137.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 136.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 127.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 112$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 98.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…4d46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 60.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 55.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…b186backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 27.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 26.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 17.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.