NFL · resolved market
Will Kyler Murray play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc944bbb8d914041b53057ba6a986e45956f2ed7214b7196a6107e7b465477953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,437 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…ae73backed Yes | 79c | 535.02$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 5c | 262.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 23c | 254.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 56c | 236.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 18c | 221.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…1e30backed Yes | 74c | 201.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 142.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 29c | 138.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 26c | 123.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 97.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 67c | 77.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…e17cbacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 63.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…aa43backed Yes | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…7a4dbacked Yes | 72c | 55.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 26c | 51.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038a…bfecbacked Yes | 28c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +250.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 16.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyler Murray play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27?this page
- Will Kyler Murray play for Los Angeles Rams in 2026-27?No won
- Will Kyler Murray play for Miami Dolphins in 2026-27?No won
- Will Kyler Murray play for New York Jets in 2026-27?No won
- Will Kyler Murray play for Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.