Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc95863dd4bc7af3787c09ff8ac234f6f3b30a3b2cbd3cd0651ca65ded7e7654b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Yes | 68c | 2,307$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 42c | 1,977$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.28 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 41c | 1,917$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 1,632$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 42c | 1,400$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.79 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 62c | 761.79$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 63c | 747.02$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.9 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…4015backed Yes | 19c | 537.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 351.68$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.53 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 36c | 329.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.03 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 267$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.25 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 77c | 261.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 56c | 163.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Yes | 41c | 97.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 64c | 69.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 28c | 50.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 54c | 40.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Yes | 62c | 36.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49f…6314backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-12?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2025-12-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.