TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes51c30,000$15,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,30011445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No49c29,967$14,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,283.179455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No53c5,421$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.291,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes53c3,779$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.321546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No47c2,049$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.723,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes70c1,771$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.162,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Yes52c1,406$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7362638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed Yes45c1,255$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.8113332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed No49c938.78$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.781353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes52c604.7$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4910057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad28…770cbacked Yes50c522$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2613551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c0f…66a1backed No49c499.99$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…abfebacked Yes53c488.62$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.011656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes51c478$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.785635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No49c444$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.4414364.3%92 W · 51 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked No49c409.92$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.062850%14 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes51c400$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6811252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked Yes52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa469…4985backed Yes53c377.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes42c339.68$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3715829.1%46 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes79c310$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.319458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes52c308$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.1624322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes54c300$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7869…61d8backed Yes53c272.23$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.091872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bcb…a2aabacked No31c255.1$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+50.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No49c232.43$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3344749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No38c228.76$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.856951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd28d…c9c6backed Yes54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked No49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10213142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7c…25eebacked Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0613…4d1cbacked Yes52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2752…8ce3backed Yes79c190.89$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick78cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Yes53c189.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4fe…7365backed Yes53c189.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed Yes51c188.93$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.352360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5913…3bbebacked Yes53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005356.6%30 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No37c180.29$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.416542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes34c177.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7951136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae7…cf61backed Yes74c150$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11130%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes77c134.6$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9144655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bf9…c31cbacked Yes52c133.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafcc…41b7backed Yes77c129.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c3…fca3backed Yes78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes50c121.46$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.035532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x040d…3527backed Yes52c115.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd549…296dbacked Yes52c115.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Yes79c112.66$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Yes55c109.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607825.6%20 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d33…e208backed Yes54c101.85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554736.2%17 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f5a…725ebacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked Yes51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.999062.2%56 W · 34 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc445…57c1backed Yes52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed Yes50c93.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.82050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9b…5f3ebacked Yes76c92.11$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick72cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f8e…0a87backed Yes77c90.91$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701080%8 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0501…61ecbacked Yes50c78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.361421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a6…af86backed Yes52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes53c76.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1146…5e26backed Yes80c62.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf70e…571ebacked Yes73c58.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes51c50.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.556547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Yes53c48.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266035%21 W · 39 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d61…3113backed Yes52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x641b…6116backed Yes66c47.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.54425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed No48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.671656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b90…710fbacked Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d11…c34dbacked No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+60.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed No42c39.96$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.351361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc08…3d1fbacked Yes51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x760d…deaabacked Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-43.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0a…50adbacked Yes53c36.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.46771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+102.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Yes53c35.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Yes70c30.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.521070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+41.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b80…a0d2backed Yes51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed No57c28.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.313455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…6974backed Yes53c28.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f5…4183backed Yes74c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e8…0b04backed Yes52c26.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdeb4…9854backed Yes75c26.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b58…9e49backed Yes52c24.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b0e…7e25backed No49c23.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x530d…9b59backed Yes54c22.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb2…951bbacked Yes53c20.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7202…e9b1backed Yes73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.