Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Swiatek vs Navarro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc962ffd7667bb96f2d72bff2131ccf005276d7c45ebcb7fc16b05d5b39b0eab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navarroof Swiatek, Navarro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc398…f446backed Swiatek | 65c | 829.02$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.1 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Swiatek | 60c | 294.8$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Navarro | 46c | 260.67$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.55 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Navarro | 40c | 243.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.24 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Navarro | 34c | 203.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Navarro | 35c | 173.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Navarro | 35c | 128$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Navarro | 36c | 123.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Swiatek | 35c | 95.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Swiatek | 16c | 81.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Navarro | 35c | 76.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…a483backed Swiatek | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Swiatek | 52c | 60.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…32e0backed Swiatek | 53c | 55.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…d4bfbacked Swiatek | 47c | 53.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac7…a4d6backed Swiatek | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Navarro | 33c | 44.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Navarro | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Navarro | 34c | 33.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Navarro | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 330 | 62.7%207 W · 123 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Swiatek vs Navarrothis page
- Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma NavarroEmma Navarro won
- Set 2 Winner: Swiatek vs NavarroSwiatek won
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5)Navarro won
- Swiatek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.