Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10e759177159fbc98da34d2a9753a20c42e5cf22b9896156f413885f7334f9e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navarroof Swiatek, Navarro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Navarro | 55c | 14,846$8,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,644.32 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Swiatek | 44c | 9,341$4,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,110.11 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Swiatek | 47c | 1,915$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Swiatek | 44c | 1,131$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.02 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Swiatek | 47c | 1,000$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.29 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Swiatek | 45c | 960.6$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.27 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…3ba1backed Navarro | 54c | 934.35$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.09 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Swiatek | 45c | 454.4$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.48 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Swiatek | 44c | 398$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.12 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Swiatek | 46c | 374.43$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.62 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Navarro | 58c | 252.88$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…bf04backed Swiatek | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Navarro | 57c | 210.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 604 | 46.7%282 W · 322 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Navarro | 52c | 192.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Swiatek | 48c | 187.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Swiatek | 41c | 185$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Swiatek | 52c | 122.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 259 | 48.6%126 W · 133 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Swiatek | 49c | 117.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…c98cbacked Navarro | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…06b3backed Swiatek | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -8.9wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Swiatek | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…7661backed Swiatek | 53c | 93.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Navarro | 61c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Navarro | 50c | 79.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Navarro | 57c | 69.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Swiatek | 46c | 58.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Navarro | 54c | 58.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Swiatek | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Navarro | 57c | 54.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…2209backed Swiatek | 50c | 52.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Swiatek | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…f428backed Navarro | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Swiatek | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Swiatek | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Navarro | 57c | 27.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Navarro | 57c | 21.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Navarro | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Navarro | 54c | 19.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…0ea7backed Navarro | 56c | 18.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5)this page
- Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma NavarroEmma Navarro won
- Set 1 Winner: Swiatek vs NavarroNavarro won
- Set 2 Winner: Swiatek vs NavarroSwiatek won
- Swiatek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.