MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc96753e515b12bb989492eaf3c28489ba76b68bafc5537b156559212ff350a33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Royals | 42c | 5,458$2,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,165.64 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Royals | 41c | 4,435$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.41 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…5039backed Royals | 43c | 4,000$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,286.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 50c | 3,621$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 57c | 3,308$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.76 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Rays | 59c | 2,700$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 58c | 2,308$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.59 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rays | 58c | 2,003$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.74 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Royals | 47c | 1,816$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.16 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rays | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rays | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Rays | 58c | 985$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.3 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Royals | 42c | 690$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.2 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Royals | 47c | 536$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.08 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Royals | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Rays | 58c | 399.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.99 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Royals | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Rays | 59c | 255.42$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.7 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rays | 58c | 204$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rays | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Rays | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Rays | 56c | 176$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Royals | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Royals | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Rays | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Rays | 59c | 98.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Rays | 59c | 95.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Rays | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rays | 58c | 58.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Royals | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 42c | 41.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Rays | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Royals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Rays | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Rays | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.