Earnings · resolved market
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc96c7c8c9ef06dd9eebbed5369bb1f60db264eb1807e4eab15106f17fabe31b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 30c | 690.36$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.63 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 33c | 284.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 67c | 200.71$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 189.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 77c | 158.67$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes | 77c | 156.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5817…9306backed No | 30c | 149.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 63c | 116$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…5716backed No | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 96.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…cc34backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…a797backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…37fabacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 41.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes | 76c | 40.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3284…2786backed No | 33c | 35.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…c706backed Yes | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…df33backed Yes | 56c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc065…cc09backed Yes | 67c | 26.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…ce30backed No | 42c | 24.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 66c | 24.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…465fbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d93…a559backed No | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.