NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc97b0357d31a3a024e911aa4a5916fcef7e87c6c66c7658e13ba54716c3c558d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Avalanche, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Avalanche | 42c | 3,571$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…4976backed Avalanche | 42c | 2,673$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf70d…ef69backed Islanders | 58c | 2,311$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Islanders | 58c | 2,130$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.8 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Islanders | 58c | 2,013$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.62 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Avalanche | 42c | 841.62$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.41 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Islanders | 59c | 453$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.73 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…4576backed Islanders | 58c | 361.8$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 50cpaid | +86%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Islanders | 56c | 361$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Avalanche | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.77 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Islanders | 59c | 299.17$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Avalanche | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Avalanche | 41c | 231.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Islanders | 60c | 202$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Avalanche | 43c | 182.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Islanders | 61c | 163.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Islanders | 56c | 146.52$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche | 44c | 108$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a2…825cbacked Islanders | 60c | 96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Avalanche | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Avalanche | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Islanders | 59c | 60.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Avalanche | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Avalanche | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…54a1backed Avalanche | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Islanders | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Avalanche | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Avalanche vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.