Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9909f98af9221119aca5a9815808802c348659fac56a0c779f8994deee9368e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,388 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 0c | 10,425$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 3,535$2,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.54 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 20c | 3,342$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.6 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed No | 69c | 1,201$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.55 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed Yes | 11c | 1,111$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 29c | 977.96$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.11 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 35c | 568.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Yes | 12c | 458.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 11c | 408.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 402.57$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 70c | 307.15$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Yes | 18c | 305$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 290.2$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 9c | 226.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…5852backed No | 66c | 184.59$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 64c | 179.18$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…7f4ebacked Yes | 35c | 169.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…77dfbacked Yes | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 31c | 147.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 30c | 143.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…bfc0backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…68d8backed Yes | 35c | 138.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 136.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…237dbacked Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 125$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…cafebacked No | 66c | 123.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 99.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 90.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974e…8703backed Yes | 35c | 88.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…3415backed Yes | 22c | 84.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 25c | 81.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 70.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…7ddebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 69c | 64.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 33c | 50.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 43.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 34c | 42.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 33c | 39.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…8644backed Yes | 35c | 34.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 41c | 30.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 67c | 28.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked No | 72c | 25.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 70c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 77c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.