Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1a6193b8c150f39d200e3ed1bc53027bf76ba8a069fc741752a2446e964a75c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,718 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 36c | 1,076$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.86 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 66c | 736.14$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.29 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 722.74$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.47 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 53c | 643.99$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.24 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 532$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.77 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked No | 5c | 441.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 60c | 414.31$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.04 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 24c | 393.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.08 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 361.57$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.95 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Yes | 61c | 326.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.65 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 293.53$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.01 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Yes | 56c | 279.85$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 67c | 170.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 168.01$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.82 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 158.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.46 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 58c | 149.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 25c | 135.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 127.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.51 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 118.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 27c | 110.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +271.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 47c | 103.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 99.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…235bbacked Yes | 25c | 87.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 75.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 70.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 73c | 64.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 23c | 58.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 49c | 41.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ab…10c8backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?this page
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.