Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9b0f4fb74bb2026be65e67d3c1486bc7425c9a88339841e489cca11de5bfaba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed L1ga Team | 12c | 6,967$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.4 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed L1ga Team | 21c | 3,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.02 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team | 22c | 2,742$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.52 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…9f48backed L1ga Team | 9c | 1,800$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 1,267$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.52 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 1,136$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.46 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…cb5bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 969.99$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.4 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed L1ga Team | 6c | 838$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed L1ga Team | 21c | 760.57$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.72 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 759.78$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.55 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…ff8cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked L1ga Team | 22c | 499.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 499.98$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…893cbacked L1ga Team | 8c | 499.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 243 | 43.6%106 W · 137 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…a441backed L1ga Team | 7c | 439$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed L1ga Team | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed L1ga Team | 5c | 427.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 426.33$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 390.83$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked L1ga Team | 7c | 377.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…528cbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 357.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked L1ga Team | 21c | 320$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed L1ga Team | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 212$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…b6ffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 178.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked L1ga Team | 9c | 152.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…f493backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 126.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed L1ga Team | 20c | 120.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed L1ga Team | 22c | 114$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed L1ga Team | 10c | 104.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed L1ga Team | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked L1ga Team | 20c | 99.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked L1ga Team | 12c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed L1ga Team | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed L1ga Team | 23c | 45.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -8.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b53…7657backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.