Tennis · resolved market
Austin: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9b597dec89f69ebfcd6f9f1076648f0fc7d27d2f9e1e158d3c1ea4422f4ad66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paula Badosaof Paula Badosa, Sinja Kraus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,875 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cfb…0628backed Sinja Kraus | 11c | 7,570$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 302 | 41.7%126 W · 176 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Paula Badosa | 79c | 3,886$3,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.5 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked Sinja Kraus | 27c | 3,484$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.86 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Sinja Kraus | 18c | 1,641$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.75 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ae…85ccbacked Sinja Kraus | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Sinja Kraus | 21c | 1,154$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.37 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Paula Badosa | 78c | 1,144$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.73 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x621c…7721backed Sinja Kraus | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Sinja Kraus | 17c | 985.85$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Sinja Kraus | 18c | 827.85$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Sinja Kraus | 27c | 333.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Sinja Kraus | 22c | 325.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Sinja Kraus | 10c | 279.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Paula Badosa | 78c | 224$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sinja Kraus | 18c | 222$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Sinja Kraus | 16c | 204$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Sinja Kraus | 19c | 203.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Sinja Kraus | 23c | 176.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Sinja Kraus | 31c | 166.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…43a1backed Sinja Kraus | 20c | 153.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Sinja Kraus | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 573 | 49.6%284 W · 289 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…c711backed Sinja Kraus | 22c | 130.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Sinja Kraus | 18c | 127.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Sinja Kraus | 17c | 124$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Paula Badosa | 72c | 120.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sinja Kraus | 13c | 118.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sinja Kraus | 34c | 108.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Sinja Kraus | 19c | 103.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Sinja Kraus | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Sinja Kraus | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Paula Badosa | 78c | 96.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed Sinja Kraus | 21c | 82.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…d5a3backed Paula Badosa | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked Paula Badosa | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Paula Badosa | 55c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Paula Badosa | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Paula Badosa | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Paula Badosa | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 210 | 72.4%152 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff1…4766backed Paula Badosa | 78c | 44.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 167 | 62.3%104 W · 63 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Sinja Kraus | 51c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Paula Badosa | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Paula Badosa | 70c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.