Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9e0247dcbc152d3b0e545c9ce54a6b70ebca6371304a52d046291b9b45b89c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,257 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63a2…b4efbacked Over | 31c | 6,418$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa640…d9bbbacked Over | 31c | 4,667$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…0e8cbacked Under | 69c | 3,867$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…22b1backed Under | 69c | 3,344$2,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…9d26backed Under | 69c | 3,082$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 78c | 1,023$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 914.49$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.49 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 36c | 899.99$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 20c | 810.67$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 18c | 702.79$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec94…0a34backed Under | 70c | 508$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…bfbdbacked Over | 33c | 488.68$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Under | 69c | 432.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.36 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…999ebacked Over | 32c | 330$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd3…dd66backed Under | 70c | 299$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9268…8cf7backed Under | 68c | 279$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 71c | 276.15$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 73c | 273.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…3c26backed Under | 68c | 236$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 29c | 223$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f8…f72ebacked Over | 32c | 203$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…3bdfbacked Over | 32c | 202$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 65c | 179$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 32c | 173.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…afd0backed Under | 68c | 169$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…449ebacked Under | 68c | 161$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e2…9ff0backed Over | 32c | 129$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 123.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…25ddbacked Under | 75c | 69.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 69c | 68.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…51acbacked Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 28c | 51.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…a3d8backed Over | 29c | 38.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 69c | 37.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 70c | 23.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 70c | 23.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 68c | 19.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.