Us Politics · resolved market
Trump cabinet nominee withdrawn in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9e94b8f8a511d3f4c1146cf90b783e21e43026265d0d9f4c8c5dda6026f044e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 17c | 3,411$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.66 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 5c | 2,818$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.86 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 5c | 2,100$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 2c | 1,365$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 10c | 999.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 974.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 7c | 887.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…25d5backed Yes | 6c | 844.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 13c | 699.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 699.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 3c | 583.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 2c | 562.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 517.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…30a1backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9adabacked Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 11c | 273.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…6b68backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999e…b3a6backed Yes | 17c | 131.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…0cf4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 84.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 58.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.