Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9f04121313237c3a2b34a08cc3edae877e357ef2b5d4fa6237d95921ccbd01d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 60c | 358.81$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.17 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 321.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.77 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 236.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.51 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked No | 57c | 200$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 199.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 198.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 52c | 196.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 9c | 180.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 166.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 137.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 113.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 104.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 33c | 80.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 70.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 45c | 70.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 39c | 55.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 43c | 54.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 35c | 54.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 47.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 46.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +108%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 66c | 45.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 43.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 62c | 42.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes | 35c | 42.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 35c | 41.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…8dadbacked Yes | 35c | 38.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 32c | 36.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 41c | 26.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 55c | 26.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 63c | 25.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 19.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 15.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…f085backed Yes | 74c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.