Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4b935d836e898d8202e9079fedb9dafd2de2c05374272c1750636b5c619c6e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 385.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 75c | 355.47$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 21c | 350.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 180.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 167.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 157.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…926dbacked No | 77c | 149.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 133.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 128.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 25c | 118.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 21c | 79.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 21c | 76.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 74.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 70.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 27c | 68.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 65.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 55.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 50.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 39.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 30.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 30.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 42c | 28.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 25.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 61c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…a270backed No | 80c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.