Euroleague · resolved market
Beijing Ducks vs. Beijing Royal Fighters
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9f591e49d7b3f29ec4a7ddc7fa79caac3418afed43632d7566b36aee9dc31cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Beijing Royal Fightersof Beijing Ducks, Beijing Royal Fighters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Beijing Ducks | 61c | 3,341$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.19 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Beijing Royal Fighters | 35c | 2,552$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.58 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Beijing Royal Fighters | 17c | 1,500$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.05 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Beijing Ducks | 6c | 992.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Beijing Ducks | 3c | 940.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 159 | 8.2%13 W · 146 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Beijing Royal Fighters | 55c | 795.59$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.58 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Beijing Ducks | 60c | 380.94$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Beijing Royal Fighters | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Beijing Ducks | 78c | 112$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…807abacked Beijing Ducks | 70c | 110.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Beijing Ducks | 76c | 102$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Beijing Ducks | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Beijing Royal Fighters | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 352 | 34.7%122 W · 230 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Beijing Ducks | 78c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…0696backed Beijing Royal Fighters | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Beijing Ducks | 78c | 56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Beijing Ducks | 78c | 53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Beijing Royal Fighters | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Beijing Royal Fighters | 51c | 49.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 265 | 44.5%118 W · 147 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Beijing Ducks | 40c | 48.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Beijing Ducks | 40c | 41.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…f098backed Beijing Royal Fighters | 36c | 40.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…899bbacked Beijing Ducks | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 209 | 36.4%76 W · 133 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Beijing Ducks | 75c | 29.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Beijing Ducks | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Beijing Royal Fighters | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Beijing Ducks | 65c | 19.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Beijing Ducks | 58c | 17.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.