MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca03f9bec561224eb9bc620bcf08b6ec1d58a7f6b4787aea10896a76fc3ca8c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Colorado Rockies | 47c | 637.29$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.37 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 396.16$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Colorado Rockies | 16c | 369.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 201.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 129.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 110.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 96.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 96.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Colorado Rockies | 69c | 88.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 82.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 68.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 67.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 62.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…e235backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 23.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.