MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1783ac8d761b599358d1886430e6dfc4910caa485bbccb43164d5116dd82072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Over | 51c | 2,149$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 53c | 1,716$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.07 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 1,120$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 51c | 607.44$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.65 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 514.09$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Over | 51c | 441.66$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.41 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 54c | 440.11$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.23 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 51c | 336.74$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 51c | 332.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 327$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.23 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 260.26$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 249.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 50c | 247.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 237.78$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 52c | 234.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 13c | 226.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f18…1ae2backed Over | 51c | 204.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 52c | 193.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 34c | 176.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 49c | 138$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 50c | 136.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 49c | 135$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 107.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…d6e9backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…f713backed Over | 49c | 75.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 51c | 72.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 54c | 49.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 48c | 40.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 48c | 34.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 166 | 61.4%102 W · 64 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.