Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca0815e6029871f58bec602e2334c6a326acc34cb93acadaad65f2867012f649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estoril Praiaof FC Porto, Estoril Praia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Porto | 36c | 1,382$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.91 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Estoril Praia | 78c | 758.05$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.77 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Estoril Praia | 61c | 690.28$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.54 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed FC Porto | 30c | 393.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Porto | 42c | 214.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked FC Porto | 73c | 134.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Estoril Praia | 54c | 99.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Estoril Praia | 51c | 50.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Estoril Praia | 51c | 50.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Estoril Praia | 51c | 50.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Estoril Praia | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed FC Porto | 43c | 45.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…727ebacked FC Porto | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Estoril Praia | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Estoril Praia | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Estoril Praia | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Estoril Praia | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Estoril Praia | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Estoril Praia | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Estoril Praia | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 133 | 60.2%80 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Estoril Praia | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 280 | 49.6%139 W · 141 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Estoril Praia | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed FC Porto | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Estoril Praia | 61c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Estoril Praia | 65c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Estoril Praia | 65c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Estoril Praia | 65c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)this page
- Estoril Praia vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Estoril Praia vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5Over won
- Estoril Praia vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Over won
- Estoril Praia vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Over won
- Estoril Praia vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Estoril Praia (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: Estoril Praia (-2.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.