Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca0d4a787338481fb54f721124a2aa0fed8184a28a07eef8aefd02c3044ae76d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 17c | 725.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 21c | 684.8$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.36 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 595.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 401.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 5c | 380.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 331.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 4c | 267.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 257.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 5c | 246.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 9c | 238.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 11c | 176.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 8c | 175.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 7c | 171.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 15c | 166.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 16c | 152.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 19c | 147.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 118.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 23c | 102.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 19c | 92.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 82.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 17c | 72.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 21c | 58.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 74c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.