Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562938eb02123898d7c20c4804a2022afec267adf6e17a6b05397ea202397638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 1c | 4,799$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…9c15backed Yes | 3c | 3,907$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 1c | 1,604$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 1c | 1,095$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed Yes | 5c | 1,042$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 5c | 936.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 5c | 870.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 757.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 5c | 738.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 2c | 699.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 3c | 688.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 3c | 645.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 2c | 602.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Yes | 4c | 463.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 3c | 460$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 6c | 377$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Yes | 5c | 369.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 5c | 306$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 5c | 305.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 5c | 225$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 8c | 195.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d19…a943backed Yes | 6c | 187.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 10c | 104.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.