Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572082c86fbd880d6e228e84635b1ea6b87d8e2bb0681af346a60f7a8de68b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 8c | 3,458$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,195.8 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 1c | 2,001$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.26 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,048$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.52 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 3c | 1,024$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.32 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 974.72$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 7c | 823.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.36 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 5c | 635.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.17 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 6c | 398.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.23 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 378.05$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 331.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 3c | 302.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.98 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 29c | 288.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.79 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 5c | 244.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.76 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 9c | 162.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 24c | 138$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 11c | 135.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b8…3a96backed Yes | 55c | 118.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 43c | 115.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 67c | 114.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 14c | 111$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 105.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7444backed Yes | 55c | 105.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 54c | 102.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 25c | 98.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 27c | 93.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 61c | 72.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 14c | 71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 66.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 60.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…d111backed Yes | 37c | 58.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 39c | 55.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d19…a943backed Yes | 28c | 54.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 46.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…33cfbacked Yes | 37c | 44.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 34c | 42.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 41.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 24c | 40.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 72c | 39.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 56c | 35.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 76c | 23.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…88babacked Yes | 68c | 22.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 18.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…3e16backed Yes | 69c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.