Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdedd38e7ffa599b7242a2beff1ee2ef3d10a7ff31186a2aa69b368e4b64c7e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 8c | 800.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 733.95$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 705.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 510.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 11c | 482.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 78c | 437.91$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 408.76$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 399.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 334.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 41c | 262.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 203$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 191.86$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 183.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 12c | 176$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 171.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 28c | 171$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 154.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 150.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 150.2$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 142.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 25c | 128.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 71c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 121.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 119.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 17c | 101.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 94.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 90.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 88.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 87.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 86.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 76c | 85.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 30c | 83.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…23dbbacked Yes | 14c | 81.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 80.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 23c | 79.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 14c | 78.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 70c | 77.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 39c | 76.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 75.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 69c | 60.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 60.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 77c | 58.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 61c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…c553backed No | 79c | 53.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 77cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 52.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 75c | 51.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 47.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 78c | 46.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 43.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 24c | 42.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 77c | 40.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 75c | 40.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 38.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 75c | 36.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c71…431fbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 76c | 34.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 78c | 31.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b4…32cabacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 29.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 73c | 29.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 78c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 75c | 25.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 70c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 70c | 20.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…bab1backed No | 71c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 75c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 63c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…7eb2backed No | 74c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 73c | 13.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 77c | 13.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…8a4abacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.