Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5556720021d997e022b3bc8893c3deadd057ead06e935cb8d13c6046b7c572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 3c | 1,240$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 1,049$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 2c | 938.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 2c | 812.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed Yes | 53c | 738.93$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.3 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 726.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 5c | 663.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 10c | 604.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 549.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 6c | 515$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 4c | 397.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 330.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 8c | 321.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 10c | 250.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 249.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 248.71$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 242.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 11c | 228.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 12c | 209.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 207.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 201.52$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 16c | 177$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 41c | 154.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 44c | 154.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 45c | 154$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 8c | 144.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 70c | 142.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 13c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f10…9059backed No | 76c | 131.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 130.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 129.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…bd14backed Yes | 51c | 126.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked Yes | 52c | 125.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 20c | 124.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed No | 58c | 122.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…0acfbacked Yes | 46c | 116.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 116.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 44c | 97.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 15c | 97.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 97.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 14c | 83.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 39c | 78.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 75c | 65.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 64.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 51c | 61.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…9de5backed Yes | 48c | 57.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…1ffebacked Yes | 51c | 50.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 51c | 46.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 51c | 46.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 46.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 53c | 45.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…45e5backed Yes | 47c | 44.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 52c | 44.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 43.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 71c | 38.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed Yes | 53c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 54c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked Yes | 55c | 35.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed Yes | 42c | 33.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 45c | 33.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 50c | 31.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a7…d16bbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…ca58backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed No | 48c | 29.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 54c | 26.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…b420backed Yes | 48c | 26.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…979ebacked Yes | 53c | 23.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…7657backed Yes | 53c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 75c | 22.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb534…f7e7backed Yes | 60c | 22.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.