Tennis · resolved market
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Kayo Nishimura
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca15d24943b92abe901932cfa7979a67f4c267a2fded6a8495b6241c23ee3def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sakura Hosogiof Sakura Hosogi, Kayo Nishimura
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Kayo Nishimura | 30c | 4,418$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.85 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sakura Hosogi | 70c | 3,728$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.09 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Sakura Hosogi | 70c | 2,866$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.6 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sakura Hosogi | 69c | 2,851$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.48 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sakura Hosogi | 53c | 1,847$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.92 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kayo Nishimura | 28c | 1,750$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.51 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Kayo Nishimura | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Kayo Nishimura | 46c | 1,564$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.52 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Kayo Nishimura | 33c | 1,503$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.97 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Sakura Hosogi | 62c | 862.27$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.77 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Kayo Nishimura | 31c | 832.85$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.18 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Sakura Hosogi | 60c | 820.42$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.97 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Kayo Nishimura | 31c | 694.47$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.09 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Kayo Nishimura | 32c | 599.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kayo Nishimura | 46c | 548.78$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.89 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Kayo Nishimura | 33c | 485.28$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Sakura Hosogi | 59c | 472.16$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…d98abacked Sakura Hosogi | 79c | 389.87$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 249 | 62.2%155 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kayo Nishimura | 34c | 383.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Sakura Hosogi | 63c | 306.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sakura Hosogi | 64c | 267.66$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kayo Nishimura | 30c | 223$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Sakura Hosogi | 63c | 168.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Kayo Nishimura | 37c | 168.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Kayo Nishimura | 30c | 163.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Sakura Hosogi | 70c | 163$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 226 | 51.8%117 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Kayo Nishimura | 32c | 150.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Sakura Hosogi | 73c | 146.52$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Sakura Hosogi | 60c | 136.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kayo Nishimura | 41c | 134.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…8745backed Kayo Nishimura | 17c | 133$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sakura Hosogi | 72c | 126.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Kayo Nishimura | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Kayo Nishimura | 64c | 114$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Sakura Hosogi | 68c | 101$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Kayo Nishimura | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Sakura Hosogi | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 202 | 70.8%143 W · 59 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Kayo Nishimura | 30c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Kayo Nishimura | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Kayo Nishimura | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 398 | 51%203 W · 195 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7cefbacked Kayo Nishimura | 44c | 66.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sakura Hosogi | 54c | 59.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Sakura Hosogi | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 197 | 45.7%90 W · 107 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Kayo Nishimura | 41c | 47.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 434 | 44.9%195 W · 239 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Sakura Hosogi | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Sakura Hosogi | 52c | 42.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Sakura Hosogi | 66c | 39.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Kayo Nishimura | 33c | 39.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked Sakura Hosogi | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Sakura Hosogi | 65c | 27.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Sakura Hosogi | 54c | 24.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…deaebacked Sakura Hosogi | 69c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 93 | 64.5%60 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed Kayo Nishimura | 58c | 19.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Sakura Hosogi | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.