Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca171c9fbe7799b1f1b3c688c98e00b9d0c9897894514407d9e7938bd3a94418
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof Team Lynx, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked MODUS | 54c | 8,043$4,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,689.48 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Lynx | 41c | 4,191$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.96 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Lynx | 52c | 2,188$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.51 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx | 62c | 1,878$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.12 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked MODUS | 50c | 1,043$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.62 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Lynx | 65c | 989$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.85 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked MODUS | 42c | 877.93$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.07 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Lynx | 66c | 877$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.53 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Lynx | 46c | 551.07$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.03 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 32c | 485.72$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked MODUS | 57c | 370.22$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.76 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Team Lynx | 47c | 334.07$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.48 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 50c | 327.86$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed MODUS | 42c | 305.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.07 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked MODUS | 42c | 298$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.39 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed MODUS | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…5393backed Team Lynx | 51c | 260$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed MODUS | 50c | 259.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Team Lynx | 60c | 238.69$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed MODUS | 77c | 225.03$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Lynx | 61c | 219.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.11 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS | 49c | 210.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…bd2abacked Team Lynx | 60c | 143.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…c97abacked Team Lynx | 22c | 142.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MODUS | 50c | 140.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked MODUS | 49c | 137.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Team Lynx | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed MODUS | 25c | 86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 46c | 75.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e5…c8d1backed MODUS | 71c | 73.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MODUS | 49c | 73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked MODUS | 40c | 72.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Team Lynx | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked MODUS | 54c | 57.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Team Lynx | 55c | 54.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked MODUS | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Team Lynx | 42c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Team Lynx | 62c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…7658backed MODUS | 68c | 45.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked MODUS | 46c | 40.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed MODUS | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Team Lynx | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Team Lynx | 63c | 34.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Lynx | 49c | 34.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed MODUS | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…71cebacked Team Lynx | 57c | 30.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Team Lynx | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Team Lynx | 61c | 18.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group BMODUS won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.