Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca27f5ced245a346791adc045df47f978a8d0658cbee0a002f3bc8f3899ce910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,960 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe348…a303backed Yes | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 1,316$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.18 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 23c | 1,036$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.62 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 964.7$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.2 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 23c | 782.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 750$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed No | 3c | 741.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +968.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 72c | 679.11$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.15 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 71c | 658$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.82 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 72c | 499.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 443.95$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.31 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 28c | 442.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 428.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 409.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…6adebacked Yes | 4c | 284.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked No | 71c | 199.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…08d2backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 70c | 77.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…39fdbacked No | 73c | 37.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 72c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 143 | 60.8%87 W · 56 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-01-19?No won
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-01-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.