Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-01-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178395e7ea316958a815b3ae0e045faf18f5d4b1a6981c1b59ae083d6f2cebe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 32c | 6,234$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.86 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 4,163$3,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.11 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df9…e49ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,231$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,225$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…40d5backed No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 930.71$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.13 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 680.6$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.72 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 68c | 511$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.52 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 35c | 334.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 305.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 34c | 268$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 218.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 66c | 164.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 67c | 153.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 33c | 148.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 76c | 130.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0da1…70b6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 66c | 91.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 80c | 91.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 35c | 73.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked No | 67c | 60.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…eb70backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 70c | 49.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 33c | 47.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed No | 68c | 47.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 68c | 36.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 32c | 35.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed No | 66c | 27.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 78c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 151 | 62.3%94 W · 57 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-01-19?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?No won
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-01-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.