Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 97-98°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca45def023ce1f04706c46a88ee84fd5cef24eec0f2b0bc8d2a5d536aa8fe32b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 45c | 949.51$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.93 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 42c | 909$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.71 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 29c | 858.6$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.19 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 777.25$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 42c | 642.41$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.91 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 47c | 538.5$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.75 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd2…6535backed Yes | 77c | 451.26$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…ef0dbacked No | 53c | 400.81$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1b…3e58backed No | 54c | 373.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 68c | 344.36$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 73c | 338$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 50c | 303.55$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd61d…abdebacked Yes | 66c | 299.94$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…31abbacked No | 76c | 294.82$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 59c | 223$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 27c | 220$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 32c | 212$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.95 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 102 | 29.4%30 W · 72 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…f792backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…7ba1backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 15c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…fb3abacked No | 73c | 72.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e00…d6aabacked No | 68c | 58.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 40c | 51.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 60c | 51.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…caeebacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…229abacked Yes | 56c | 35.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Yes | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 77c | 21.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…d7adbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 97-98°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 105°F or higher on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 94°F or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 101-102°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 103-104°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 95-96°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 99-100°F on June 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.