Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca54126dfb44f260f24c4c722defd1b65002bf05b54bd1e13bf25cc9107bc9f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 22c | 307.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 27c | 249.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 41c | 215.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 69c | 174.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 150.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 146.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 8c | 141.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 75c | 130.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed No | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 62c | 112.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 111.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 34c | 101.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 65c | 100.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 95.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 73c | 86.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 62c | 80.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 50c | 71.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 69.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 30c | 64.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 77c | 63.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab6…0a4cbacked Yes | 71c | 62.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 59c | 61.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 37c | 61.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 47c | 60.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 38c | 53.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 79c | 48.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 35c | 45.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 37.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 37.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 38c | 32.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 31.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 69c | 28.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…114dbacked Yes | 69c | 27.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes | 49c | 27.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 63c | 27.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 75c | 26.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked Yes | 78c | 24.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 48c | 23.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 70c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 71c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 57c | 19.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af4…f24abacked Yes | 74c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.